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cheap Canada Goose The downward global economic spiral continues apace. Meanwhile, governments canada goose stockists uk have promised to canada goose kensington parka uk spend unimaginable sums in stimulus packages. Billions have been canada goose outlet eu replaced by trillions. cheap Canada Goose

To put these numbers in perspective, India’s GDP has just crossed the $1 trillion canada goose jacket outlet toronto mark, and its total stock market capitalization is just under $1 trillion. The continuing crisis and the unprecedented US government borrowing response is likely to portend important changes in the global environment, which is the subject of this column.

Canada Goose sale As I have argued (in In Praise of Empires), the last two centuries have been dominated by two Anglo Saxon empires (the British and the US), whose liberal international economic orders have allowed the wholly benign processes of globalization to bring untold global prosperity. Canada Goose sale

cheap canada goose uk The inter war imperial interregnum saw a period of grave disorder and the emergence of fascism and communism. Today, will the US be able and willing to maintain canada goose outlet michigan its hegemony, allowing globalization to continue? cheap canada goose uk

On October 10, 1916, in the middle of a British financial crisis, Keynes wrote a memorandum to the Treasury, noting that financial hegemony had passed across the Atlantic (see R Skidelsky: John Maynard Keynes, vol.1, p.335).

canadian goose jacket Is the canada goose outlet reviews collapse of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2009 a similar turning point? For, with the three high savings countries China, Japan and India as the major source of funding for the exploding US public debt, will the US have canada goose outlet canada goose outlet montreal to adopt the policy Keynes recommended for Britain: ‘not only to avoid any form of reprisal or even active irritation but also to conciliate and please’? And which of these countries is likely to replace or help US canada goose outlet ontario hegemony? canadian goose jacket

Japan, because of its continuing reluctance to match its economic with military power and with its stagnant economy and demographics, is an unlikely candidate.

Canada Goose Coats On Sale This leaves the two emerging Asian giants. George W Bush’s canada goose uk site most notable achievement was the canada goose factory outlet strategic partnership he established with India, cemented by the Indo US nuclear deal. Canada Goose Coats On Sale

But India’s economic and military power is at present dwarfed by China’s.

canada goose black friday sale As China has signalled that it is not planning to sell its holdings of US debt, it along with the Gulf state sovereign funds is the most likely source of finance for the exploding US budget deficit. So expect talk of Chinese ‘currency manipulation’ and lectures on human rights to diminish as the US, faute de mieux, has to follow Keynes’ advice. canada goose black friday sale

canada goose uk black friday Though, at present, it is impossible for China to take over the US’s hegemonic role, it canada goose outlet official will undoubtedly have increasing leverage over US foreign and domestic policy as the financier of the US. canada goose uk black friday

This is likely to make the US’s war against the current totalitarian threat from militant Islam more difficult. For, given China’s desire to assure supplies of primary products particularly oil for its rapid industrialization, its foreign policy is unlikely to antagonize many natural resource producing countries, like Iran and Sudan, which continue to aid and abet international terrorism.

canada goose clearance Nor, given China’s historical canada goose outlet store new york support of the current crucible of jihadists, Pakistan, as a counterweight to its emerging Asian rival, India, can much help be expected in this quarter. canada goose clearance

canada goose store This leaves India which, even more than the US (as the Mumbai attacks demonstrated), has to fear the rise of militant Islam and the impending implosion canada goose outlet store toronto of the Pakistani state. In many ways it would be the natural partner of the US with its large army to accompany the technological wizardry of the US military. But is it able or willing to take on the role of a partner in the US imperium? This is a subject for a future column. canada goose store

buy canada goose jacket Meanwhile, the other potential US partners in sharing its imperial burden the Europeans have clearly signalled (with the exception of the British) their refusal to send more troops to Afghanistan. buy canada goose jacket

Canada Goose Parka Since this canada goose outlet in uk implies that they are going to continue to be free riders, the US stands alone in maintaining global order. canada goose outlet parka Will the aftermath of the current crisis leave it with the means and will to do so? Canada Goose Parka

canada goose uk outlet The parallel with Rome is instructive. The causes of Rome’s decline were ultimately economic. canada goose uk outlet

As the past rents canada goose outlet store near me acquired during the empire’s growth had been in part committed to a vast expansion of a welfare state without extending the domestic tax base, the empire faced an endemic fiscal crisis.

Canada Goose online It tried to close the deficit by levying an inflation tax by debasing the currency. canada goose outlet in montreal This not being enough, taxes had to be raised, leading by the middle of the fourth century to tax evasion and avoidance by high officials and canada goose outlet belgium large landowners. The fiscal crisis also led goose outlet canada to problems in maintaining the old military organization. Canada Goose online

Canada Goose Jackets Without the canada goose jacket outlet means to provide the Italici satisfactory treatment, recruitment was expanded to the provincials and, in the later years of the empire, to the barbarians. Having let them inside the gates the empire sealed its doom. Canada Goose Jackets

That the US imperium is on a similar primrose path was pointed out in a dire warning by the former US Comptroller General David Walker in August 2007, when the US budget deficit was only projected to be under $500 billion.

canada goose This irresponsibility has increased manifold with the current crisis. The 2007 canada goose outlet locations in toronto report noted that it was primarily the health entitlements which made the US budget unsustainable. canada goose

This is the entitlement Obama is planning to enlarge. Walker also warned that the crisis could not be solved by growing out of the problem, eliminating earmarks, wiping out fraud, ending the Iraq war or cutting defence expenditures, restraining discretionary spending or letting the Bush tax cuts expire (US, GAO 07 389T, p.18).

These are the very policies that Obama is hoping will reverse exploding future deficits.

canada goose uk shop With canada goose outlet new york city projected canada goose outlet in canada reductions in military spending, it seems likely that the US, like its Roman predecessor, will find it difficult to maintain the canada goose outlet in chicago sinews of the forces that have held the global order together. canada goose uk shop

uk canada goose With no obvious alternative to provide this global public good, I fear the canada goose outlet uk ensuing erosion of the global order, which is so essential for the canada goose outlet in vancouver processes of globalization to work, is likely to be the most serious long term consequence of the global financial crisis uk canada goose.

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